This week, my predictions for next week's iPhone Event...
My Predictions For Wednesday
It's become a bit of an annual tradition for this newsletter. Apple's biggest event of the year is four days away, the rumour mill has been running at full speed for months, and I'm going to lay out exactly what I think is going to happen on Wednesday, 6PM my time. Some of these will be obvious. Some will be less so. And at least one or two will almost certainly be wrong. But that's the fun of it. Let's go.
No mention of Tim...
I'll start with this one because it sets the tone for the whole event. I don't think Apple will reference Tim Cook's departure during the keynote. Not a tribute video, not a round of applause, not a "thank you, Tim" moment. My instinct is that Cook's farewell already happened. He had his moment at WWDC. Apple released heartfelt videos in the weeks that followed. The goodbye has been said. Spending part of a major product launch looking backwards would distract from the excitement of what's new, and this event should represent Apple turning the page, not dwelling on the chapter that just ended.
I expect John Ternus to walk out, say good morning, and get straight into it. No grand introduction, no "as the new CEO" preamble. Just straight to the products. That confidence, the assumption that the audience already knows who he is and doesn't need it explained, would be the most Ternus thing he could do.
The iPhone Ultra will be the 'One More Thing'
I think Apple will showcase and launch its first foldable iPhone on Wednesday. It won't just be a preview or a teaser for later in the year. It will be announced, demonstrated, and made available for pre-order, even if shipping comes later than the Pro models. And I think it will be the final product unveiled, the climax of the entire event. The "one more thing."
It's one of the worst-kept surprises in technology. We've seen dummy units, leaked camera module covers, production reports, and spec sheets for months. But Apple will still position it as the moment, and honestly, despite knowing almost everything about it already, I think it'll still land. A foldable iPhone is a big deal regardless of how many leaks preceded it.
That said, the supply situation is genuinely concerning. Nikkei Asia reported earlier this week that production is currently running at just a few hundred units per day, held back not by component shortages but by Apple's extremely strict quality control standards. Apple's target is 10 million units for the year, but suppliers say they may need three to five months to reach that output level. If those numbers are accurate, early availability is going to be severely limited. I expect Apple to open pre-orders alongside the Pro models, but the Ultra will almost certainly ship later, and it will sell out immediately.
I really hope Apple doesn't restrict the launch to the US only. Some reports have suggested a staggered rollout starting with just America, but I'm hoping for at least the major markets. If it launches globally, I'll be ordering one on day one and collecting it from my nearest Apple Store. After some poor courier experiences locally, I don't trust a device this scarce and this expensive to a company that recently left an Amazon package in our wheelie bin (that was kerbside, waiting to be emptied that day).
My predicted UK starting price is £2,499. Higher storage configurations could comfortably exceed £3,000. That's a lot of money for a first-generation product with known compromises. But the early-adopter demand will be so intense that none of those concerns will matter for the first few months. The wider public will be fascinated by it, but most people won't be willing to spend that much, and once the initial wave of early adopters has been satisfied, first-generation sales could look underwhelming. I think Apple knows this. Like the iPhone Air, the goal may be to establish the category now and build broader demand over the second and third generations.
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The Ultra will fare better than Vision Pro
The iPhone Ultra and the Vision Pro share the same difficult proposition: an extremely high price combined with several first-generation compromises. But I think Apple has a much better chance of selling the Ultra, for one simple reason: people already understand what it is.
Vision Pro required you to book a demo, go to an Apple Store, have someone scan your face, and spend 30 minutes being guided through the experience before you could even begin to understand the product. Most people never did that. The iPhone Ultra is different. Everyone knows what a smartphone is. Everyone broadly understands what a foldable does, even if they've never used one. It can sit on the table in an Apple Store next to the regular iPhones, and people can pick it up, unfold it, and explore it without an appointment. You'll understand it by yourself, in seconds.
The decisive moment will be when someone opens it and sees the 7.8-inch inner display. Apple will show people running two apps side by side, watching video, using it like a small tablet that folds and fits in your pocket. That immediate physical experience, something Vision Pro never had the luxury of, could be the thing that converts curiosity into sales.
iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will be iterative
Based on everything we've heard, the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are going to be solid but predictable upgrades. A slightly smaller Dynamic Island. Better battery life. The A20 Pro chip on TSMC's 2nm process. And the headline feature: Apple's first ever variable-aperture camera lens.
This is where I'll make a prediction that goes against the latest rumours. Ice Universe recently claimed that variable aperture will be exclusive to the Pro Max. I don't buy it. The last time Apple reserved a camera feature for the larger model was the tetraprism telephoto on the iPhone 15 Pro Max, and that was because the component physically couldn't fit in the smaller chassis. I'm not an engineer, but there's no immediately obvious reason why variable aperture would face the same limitation. And if Apple gives it only to the Pro Max, the regular iPhone 18 Pro has almost no meaningful hardware story at all. A smaller Dynamic Island and a faster chip aren't exactly going to set the world on fire.
I predict both Pro models get variable aperture. Apple will dedicate a substantial keynote segment to it, probably filmed in a photography studio at Apple Park, with professional photographers demonstrating how it replaces software-based depth simulation with genuine optical control. Expect the phrase "for the first time on iPhone" to be used approximately 47 times.
The honest reality, though, is that this is an iterative year for the Pro. If you're on an iPhone 17 Pro, there's probably no compelling reason to upgrade. Apple likely knows this and is counting on the Ultra to carry the excitement while the Pros do steady, reliable business. The counterargument is that most people don't upgrade every year anyway, and someone coming from an iPhone 15 or 16 Pro will find plenty to be impressed by.
And yes, prices are going up. Apple won't acknowledge or discuss the increases during the keynote. They'll simply appear on the website when pre-orders open. Research suggests the iPhone 18 Pro could start at around $1,349/£1,349, up from the current $1,099/£1,099. The Pro Max will be higher still. Apple will not mention the missing iPhone 18 or iPhone Air either. There will be no acknowledgement of the split launch schedule. The event will focus entirely on what's being announced, not on what's been left out.
The Watches will be boring
I think the Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4 will be very boring, iterative updates. I know I say this every year. I know it's become a running joke. But I genuinely don't think Apple is ready to deliver a meaningful Apple Watch redesign, and this year's upgrades will be almost entirely internal.
New processors, better performance, and the ability to run Siri AI on your wrist. That last point is actually the entire sales pitch. Apple needs people to buy a newer Watch so they can use the new Siri, and the new chips are the enabler. Whether Apple adds a ceramic case option, as some rumours suggest, or tweaks the health sensors, the fundamental story is: buy this Watch so Siri AI works on it. That's about it.
On the topic of Siri AI on Apple Watch, I should be transparent. It was absolutely dreadful throughout most of the beta process. At its worst, it couldn't reliably set a timer. I had to open the Timer app and do it manually, which rather defeats the point of a voice assistant. It has only become genuinely good in the very latest beta. If Apple can maintain that level of performance in the public release, Siri AI on Apple Watch has the potential to be transformative. But it's been a bumpy road to get here.
AirPods 5 - No AirPods Pro
I think Apple will announce the next generation of the standard AirPods. I don't think it will announce new AirPods Pro. The camera-equipped AirPods Pro that we've discussed in previous newsletters are a 2027 product. Gurman has been adamant about that, and it makes sense. Camera AirPods are deeply reliant on the new Siri being stable and proven in the real world. Apple will want to release Siri AI publicly, gather real-world data, and then launch a product that depends on it working flawlessly. Rushing that would be a mistake.
The standard AirPods should get a Siri-focused upgrade and potentially some audio improvements, but this won't be a headline moment. Expect it to be covered quickly before Apple moves on to something more exciting.
Home is the wild card
This is the part of the event I find hardest to predict. Apple is expected to update both the Apple TV and HomePod mini, and both will lean heavily on Siri AI. Having used the latest version of Siri AI extensively, I can see how much better these products could become. A new Apple TV with genuinely useful natural-language search, the ability to ask questions about what you're watching, and smarter smart-home control would be a meaningful upgrade. And Apple TV still has a conventional visual interface to fall back on when Siri gets something wrong, which makes it a relatively low-risk way to introduce Siri AI into the home.
The bigger question is whether Apple introduces its rumoured new home products at this event: the smart doorbell, the home camera, and the HomePad smart display. These products are supposed to be built around Siri AI from the ground up. The HomePad is expected to recognise different household members and provide personalised information based on who's speaking. That only works if Siri AI is close to flawless, and I genuinely don't know whether Apple believes it's ready for that yet. It might preview the home range on Wednesday and ship it later. Or it might hold the whole thing for a separate event. This one could go either way.
Siri AI is the thread connecting everything
If there's one prediction I'm most confident about, it's this. Siri AI won't just be a feature. It will be the connective tissue of the entire keynote. It's the sales pitch for the new Apple Watch processors. It improves the standard AirPods. It could transform Apple TV and HomePod. It's essential to whatever Apple does with the smart home. And it will be central to the software experience on the iPhone Ultra. The message Apple wants to land on Wednesday is that every product on stage has been designed around the next generation of Siri. The hardware is the vehicle. The intelligence is the destination.
No Macs, no iPads, no Vision Pro
Apple has already shipped its Mac mini and Mac Studio updates separately. The MacBook Pro redesign and the next MacBook Air are 2027 products. The iMac might get an update, but if it does, it'll be at a separate October event, possibly alongside the rumoured OLED touchscreen MacBook Pro, which would be significant enough to justify its own stage.
No iPads. No new Vision Pro hardware. No AirPods Pro. The event will stay focused on iPhones, Watches, AirPods, and whatever Apple decides to do with the home.
Software release dates for iOS 27, iPadOS 27, watchOS 27, macOS Golden Gate, tvOS 27, and visionOS 27 will almost certainly be confirmed. If I had to guess, I'd say Monday September 14th for everything. That's the date I'm working towards, and should have a lot of content ready for that opening week.
The Bottom Line
This is the most anticipated Apple event in years, and for good reason. A foldable iPhone. A new CEO's first keynote. The public (two years delayed) debut of Siri AI. Updated home products. And the biggest shake-up to Apple's iPhone lineup in at least a decade. Whether Apple delivers on the promise, we'll know in four days.
I've negotiated a swap of childcare bed & bath duties with my wife for that night, and will be sat at my desk ready to go at 17:55.
I'll have full coverage for you next Friday. If you decide to watch, enjoy it!
Tip of the Week
With iOS 27 just around the corner, there is no better time than to check the storage on your device to make sure you have space for the new operating system. To do this, open Settings, choose General, then choose Software Storage. Follow the steps on this screen to remove anything you no longer need.
